Crude oil prices may recover after finding support below the $70 figure a 17-month high in US housing starts proves to ignite a rebound in risk appetite across financial markets.

Commodities - Energy

Oil Finds Support Below $70, May Recover on US Data

Crude Oil (WTI)       $70.71       +$0.63       +0.90%
Prices have are testing support at $69.50 – February’s swing low – after breaking support at the bottom of a rising channel established from mid-July 2009. Prices remain strongly correlated with the MSCI World Stock Index, hinting oil may extend losses as the markets continue to digest the festering EU sovereign debt crisis. US Housing Starts headline the economic calendar, with expectations calling for a 650K increase in April. The outcome would amount to the largest increase in 17 months and may offer a bit of support if the it proves to boost near-term risk appetite.

Commodities - Metals

Gold Prices to Turn Lower if Risky Assets Rebound

Gold        $1235.45       +$2.75       +0.22%
Prices have stalled ahead of $1250, with a pullback seeing initial support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing from mid-March at $1210.67. The correlation between prices and the VIX index of stock option volatility – the markets’ standby “fear gauge” – remains significant, hinting that further downside may be ahead if US Housing Starts help spur a rebound in risky assets in Wall St trade. A break below this boundary exposes the $1200 figure, followed by the 38.2% Fib at $1186.71.

Silver        $19.47       +$0.05        +0.25%
Prices have turned back from resistance at $19.50 near the December 2009 top, finding initial support at $18.90. A break below this juncture exposes the $18.00 figure.

Eur/Jpy has gained about 80 points since German Chancellor Merkel’s comments on Greek rexcue plan. On an hourly chart the 38.2% fibo of move down from 118.72 to 112.41 has acted as resistance. I look for this level to hold up once again if tested. A break above should bring the pair up to 115.60-70, ......

Eur/Usd has been bearish for the last coupleof weeks trading. It is always hardest to pick the bottom of these types of moves as it is hard to go against the momentum of the market. It will be interesting to see if Eur/Usd has indeed found the bottom. The pair is trading above a trendline of ......

EUR Claws Back Against the USD Yesterday started as a volatile day in which the EUR/USD pair continued to drop and Crude Oil traded below 70$ a barrel. However, during the New York trading hours, after several economic reports from the U.S. signaled a sustained economic recovery, investor confidence improved. Thereafter the EUR managed to gain ......

One of the great joys that men in free societies have long enjoyed is the ability to earn an honest wage for an honest day of work.  In particular, the amazing capitalist engine that powered the U.S. economy for decade after decade greatly rewarded the incredible hard work and industriousness of the ......

The euro made gains against all of the major currencies after Italy’s March trade balance came in at -1.34B; much better than the survey of -1.97B and prior showing of -2.33B. Italy posted a 69 million euro surplus one year … [visit site to read more] ...